Hundreds of Billions of Desert Locusts Migration Journey


How did hundreds of billions of desert locusts come form? 

Locusts began a migration journey across continents. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations recently said that the situation of the global desert locust disaster has deteriorated since the beginning of this year. The locust plague spread to parts of East Africa, West Asia and South Asia, and has spread to more than 10 countries including Kenya, Ethiopia, Iran, Yemen, India and Pakistan. The food security of tens of millions of people is threatened.


The "desert locust" that caused the locust plague is the main agricultural pest on the river valleys and oasis of tropical desert areas in Africa and Asia. So, how did this large-scale locust colony form?


Climate factors create conditions for rapid propagation of locusts

According to Cresman, a senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization for Locust Disaster Prediction, the locust disaster crisis dates back to two cyclone storms in 2018.


In May 2018, cyclone "Mekunu" (Mekunu) struck the Rub Al Khali desert in the southern Arabian Peninsula, and rainfall prompted seasonal lakes in the desert. The hot and humid environment promotes plant growth and creates conditions for the first rapid propagation of local desert locusts. 

Five months later, another cyclone "Luban" hit the nearby border between Yemen and Oman, once again contributing to the breeding of locusts. Cresman estimates that in the nine months from June 2018 to March 2019, the local desert locusts have reproduced for three generations, and the number has increased by 8,000 times.


After an explosive reproduction, in order to find new food, the desert locust began a "migration journey" across continents.

In January 2019, the first locust swarms spread to Yemen, other parts of Saudi Arabia, and southwestern Iran. In the summer of 2019, locust swarms crossed the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden into Ethiopia and Somalia. At the end of December 2019, locust swarms began to enter Kenya. By January this year, Kenya was facing the worst locust disaster in 70 years. Since then, the locust swarm has continued to move to Uganda and Tanzania. At the same time, some locust swarms invaded Pakistan and India via Iran.


The turbulence in some areas has helped the locust disaster

In addition to climatic reasons, it was pointed out that the turbulent situation in the region has also become the "accomplice" of the locust plague. Due to successive years of civil war, Yemen lacked the system and ability to prevent locust disasters, which led to the continuous growth of locust swarms and migration to other countries.

 In Somalia, some areas are controlled by terrorist organizations, and locust disaster prevention and control measures cannot be effectively implemented.


Hundreds of Billions of Desert Locusts Migration
Migrating desert Locusts

How to solve the locust disaster predicament?

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicts that if it is not contained, the number of locusts will rise sharply, possibly reaching 500 times the current number in June. The most important thing to suppress the locust plague is to find the places where the locusts may gather and kill them before they become social. For the locust swarms that have been affected, they can be killed by spraying pesticides in the air or on the ground.


How did the 400 billion desert locusts disappear in India and Pakistan after the Internet screen was refreshed?

According to official reports from India, this locust plague has now been brought under control. But the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has said that another severe desert locust plague is ravaging East Africa. 

So what is the relationship between the locust plague in India and the locust plague in East Africa? 

Zhang Zehua, a researcher at the Institute of Plant Protection of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, explained in an interview with the Global Times on the 19th that the desert locust on the border between India and Pakistan was moved from East Africa in June 2019, and used the powerful westerly jet to travel eastward. 

 Flying over West Asia to reach the border between India and Pakistan. After spawning and breeding, a recent locust disaster has formed. This year, locust swarms are forming in East Africa. Only when the climatic conditions are suitable in June will the desert locusts migrate to southern Iran and the border between India and Pakistan.


Zhang Zehua believes that the scale of the locust disaster this year is relatively large, because the desert locust population was relatively large in the previous year and last year, resulting in a large increase in egg production. 

In addition, the relatively large rainfall in the occurrence area in Africa is conducive to the hatching of locusts, resulting in an exponential increase in the number this year. Many countries were caught off guard, so they did not form an effective defense.


Zhang Zehua believes that the desert locust arriving in India and Pakistan is unlikely to migrate directly into China's inland areas due to the Tibetan Plateau. However, he reminded that the desert locust diffusion area can reach southwestern Myanmar, and the summer is the adult period. If the southwest monsoon in the Indian Ocean is extremely strong, the chance of traversing the Hengduan Mountains at 3000 meters will increase greatly.


Zhang Zehua suggested that we should attach great importance to this possible dangerous situation, strengthen unified leadership, real-time dynamic monitoring, make good material reserves, formulate prevention and control plans, establish international cooperation and communication mechanisms, strengthen scientific research, and jointly respond to threats.


From "This Locust Can't" Look at the Conceptual Hype of the Stock Market


On February 18th, the concept of "Locust Disaster" ceased to prevail, and the market began to correct its deviations. Two days of hype and one day of flameout are extreme enough, and of course enough to attract attention.


On Monday, affected by news of locust disasters in Pakistan, India and other regions, early rice, Zheng Mian, Japonica rice and other futures main contract daily limit. At the same time, the stocks related to the concept of insect disasters in the A-share market were also speculated. The pesticide and agricultural sectors performed outstandingly. .


A number of brokerages and futures companies have come up with research reports and analysis that if the locust disaster continues to spread globally, it will push up global agricultural prices, and domestic listed companies in the agricultural sector may benefit, and it will also be beneficial to pesticide companies that eliminate locusts. However, on February 18th, India announced that the locust disaster was almost over, the concept of "locust disaster" ceased, and all varieties and stocks fell back to their original form.


So a paragraph on the Internet said, "This session of locusts will not work." Looking at it another way, isn't this the common capital market hype? Since 2020, especially after the Spring Festival in February, this kind of routine has emerged one after another, endlessly, from "locust concept" to "cobalt concept", which reflects that the market is in a full liquidity.


After the Spring Festival holiday, the A-share market's continuously high transaction value also confirmed this reality. The transaction value of the two cities approached the one trillion mark again, reaching 999.7 billion yuan.

 However, it has to be said that historically, the ending of the A-share turnover of over one trillion yuan has not been very beautiful.


Needless to say, these hype concepts are meant to satisfy those who are eager to make short-term profits. However, those who are eagerly looking forward to making money from the stock market and the futures market prefer the concept of hype and think that it is a chance to make a fortune. Hearing the "concept" and swarming up, most of them were defeated in the end.


The surge in market turnover is precisely a manifestation of the influx of market opportunists. Someone asked Warren Buffett, "Why don't you just copy your approach?" 

Buffett said, because everyone does not want to get rich slowly. This sentence also hits the fate of most investment opportunists.


Yes, the more eager to achieve the goal, the harder it is to achieve. It's a smarter investment philosophy to not get into the cash and delay the principle of satisfaction to finance. Investment guru Charlie Munger said, "The need for immediate satisfaction often brings devastating results. The advantage of delayed satisfaction is that although it is progressing slowly, if you succeed, it will be very solid."


Munger once criticized Chinese individual investors for being too passionate about short-term trading. "The holding periods of Chinese individual investors are usually very short, which is really stupid and hard to imagine. I really ca n’t imagine more than this type of holding Stupid things, although they are excellent in all other aspects, it shows how difficult it is to stay rational. "


The key to "delay gratification" is self-control. When you see a transaction value of more than one trillion yuan, you must be in awe and control your urge to "enjoy the moment." I hope that in the present patience, in exchange for greater future benefits. The first thing about self-control is to stay away from various hype concepts.

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